TRACKERS

Posted at 2:57 P.M. ET

All four trackers are now out.  The last, Gallup, has Obama up seven, a gain of two from yesterday.  As previously reported, Hotline has Obama up six, Rasmussen seven, Battleground five.

Three of the four trackers now have Obama up by more than five, and moving into landslide territory.  It is incredible.  This question mark, about whom the media will tell us so little, could win the presidency by Reaganesque margins, and bring a leftist Congress with him.

Sarah Palin has done her part to prevent this, but I wonder if any minds were changed by the vice-presidential candidate.  The next presidential debate is Tuesday.  Obama won the first simply by appearing presidential.  His campaign has no real substance.  Even the much-heralded enthusiasm for him as "the one" has largely evaporated, except among the young, the African-American, and the fringes.  Americans seem ready to punish the Republicans, yet show very little confidence in the man they may well anoint on election day.  There is no reason to believe that McCain will change anything Tuesday.  Obama wins just by standing there and doing a good impersonation of a president.

Add to this a financial crisis whose timing will not be investigated by any mainstream publication, and the greatest press bias in recent history, and we have a perfect storm.

I suspect McCain knows this, and it has him beaten down.  I believe that the next two weeks, not four, are the most critical of the race.  If McCain gets out there, uses Sarah Palin effectively, and closes to within three points by October 17th, he can close the deal.  If he can't, he'll just drift, discouraged, toward defeat.

As Dick Morris points out, McCain has tactics, but doesn't seem to have a strategy.  Maybe we'll see a change in the next few days.  We'd better.

My audio today is on the subject of October surprises.  (Go here.)  There could be such a surprise, but McCain can't wait for one.  We now need the fighter pilot, not the getalong senator.

As Mike Scully points out, John Hinderaker at Power Line has suggested that Sarah Palin do some talk radio every day.  Great idea.

We have a month.  This country has depended on John McCain before.  It needs him again.

October 3, 2008.